Outlook and risks

Outlook for 2019

The continued low interest rate environment and decreased income from previously unwound interest-rate hedges (2012) will still have a negative impact on the total net interest income 2019. The uncertainty regarding the future economic development brings uncertainty to the prognosis, which may have a considerable effect especially on the income from wealth management and investment activities in the net commission income and net income from life-insurance.

Impairment of credits are expected to remain on a low level in 2019.

Despite the uncertainty of the economic development, the comparable operating profit 2019 is expected to be approximately on the same level as for 2018.

 

Risks

Aktia's result is affected by many factors, of which the most important are the general economic situation, fluctuations in share prices, interest rates and exchange rates, as well as the competitive situation. The demand for banking, insurance, wealth management and real estate agency services can be changed by these factors.
 
Changes in interest rates, yield curves and credit margins are hard to predict and can affect Aktia's interest margins and thus profitability. Aktia is pursuing a proactive management of interest rate risks.
 
Any future write-downs on credits in Aktia's loan book could be due to many factors, of which the most important are the general economic situation, the interest rate level, the level of unemployment and changes in house prices.
 
The availability of liquidity on the financial market is important for Aktia's refinancing activities. Like other banks, Aktia relies on deposits from households to service some of its liquidity needs.
 
The market value of Aktia's financial and other assets can change, among other things, as a result of requirements among investors for higher returns.
 
Increased regulation of banking and insurance operations has led to more stringent capital and liquidity requirements for the bank. The new regulations have also resulted in increased competition for deposits, higher demands on long-term financing and higher fixed costs.
 
 

Long-term financial targets for 2023:

The company's Board has confirmed the long-term financial targets as follows:
 
  • a comparable operating profit of EUR 100 million
  • a return on equity (ROE) of more than 11 per cent
  • a comparable cost-to-income ratio of under 0.60, and
  • a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) 1.5-3.0 percentage points over regulatory requirements.